At a Glance
- Tropical development is possible by midweek in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
- This system could then move slowly west toward Mexico or South Texas.
- Regardless, flooding rain is likely in parts of Mexico and Central America.
- High surf, rip currents and locally heavy rain is expected along parts of the western Gulf Coast of the U.S.
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The first tropical depression or storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may form this week in the western Gulf of Mexico, but rainfall and coastal flooding, high surf and rip currents may occur regardless from Louisiana and Texas to parts of Mexico and Central America.
One instigator of storms has now formed: A broader area of lower pressure across southern Mexico and Central America, something meteorologists refer to as a Central American Gyre, or CAG. These expansive swirls can spawn or influence tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or eastern Pacific Ocean both early and late in hurricane season.
(MORE: Central American Gyre Explained)
These systems often develop slowly and the tropical systems that form from them are generally slower to develop.
Other favorable ingredients: Wind shear, a typical nemesis of developing tropical systems, may be strong near the northern Gulf Coast, but may be light enough around the Bay of Campeche to allow for development early week. And as we've been discussing since spring, Gulf water is record warm for this time of year, easily supportive of tropical development.
When it may develop and where it may go: The National Hurricane Center has its eyes on two different areas of spin embedded in the greater gyre: one more general area located in the western Caribbean and another tighter spin off the Pacific coast of Guatemala.
Computer forecast models suggest a piece of that CAG may become a tropical depression or storm as soon as midweek in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
If that happens, the majority of that forecast guidance suggests it would move slowly west or west-northwest, eventually toward eastern Mexico's Gulf Coast later this week.
That said, given the usual slow development of such spin-offs, there is some time to watch for changes in the forecast, we can't rule out a farther north track, perhaps toward parts of the South Texas coast.
The first name in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is "Alberto".
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Most dangerous impact, regardless: Whether or not tropical development happens, the aforementioned Central American Gyre is a notoriously prolific rainfall generator.
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This large spin will wrap moisture from the eastern Pacific into southern Mexico and Central America for days.
Rainfall totals through the end of the week of June 16 will likely be measured in multiple feet in parts of extreme southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and western Nicaragua. This will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.
Four years ago also in June, the combination of a CAG, eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and Gulf Tropical Storm Cristobal dumped up to 42 inches of rain in El Salvador. Forty-three lives were lost from the flooding in Mexico and Central America.
Heavy rain is also expected in other parts of eastern Mexico ahead of and near the center of this system. That could also trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
Possible U.S. Gulf Coast impacts: As the map above shows, some locally heavy bursts of rain may push as far as the northern Gulf Coast. The heaviest rain is expected near the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Local flash flooding is possible.
But that's not the only impact.
Persistent east winds will generate swells leading to high surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding, particularly in Texas and Louisiana. This threat will also persist for several days during the week.
Check back with us at weather.com for important updates to this forecast as the details become clearer in the days ahead.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM
- Why The Atlantic's Slow Start To Hurricane Season Is Meaningless
- How To Prepare For Hurricane Season
- The Danger of Rip Currents
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
