The Path to Gold for Spencer Lee and Kennedy Blades (2024)

In just a few days’ time, a pair of Hawkeyes will take the mat in Paris in pursuit of the single greatest achievement in the sport of wrestling – an Olympic gold medal.

One of them – Spencer Lee – has already left an indelible mark on Iowa fans thanks to a career spent winning and entertaining at levels rarely, if ever seen in the storied history of the Hawkeye men’s program.

The other – Kennedy Blades – seems primed and ready to do very much the same when she dons the iconic Black & Gold singlet for the first time this coming season as a member of the burgeoning powerhouse that is the Hawkeye women’s program.

But for whatever they’ve done or will soon do as Hawkeyes, standing between each of them and the ultimate prize in Paris is a talented field of 15 other competitors who are just as motivated to win gold themselves.

This preview will take a look at those respective fields in hopes of giving Iowa fans – many of whom may be less familiar with a lot of the top non-American international wrestlers – a better idea of the challenge that lies ahead for Lee/Blades.

To be honest, I’m hardly well-versed in the specific strengths/weaknesses of many of these competitors myself, which is why the end of this piece will provide links to some other excellent previews written by those who are.

I want you guys to be able to dive as deep into all of this as you’d like, but my own personal knowledge can only guide you so far in an honest manner.

What I can do is attempt to provide some broader, numbers-based context – so even though you may see the names of wrestlers over the next few days that you can’t even fathom attempting to pronounce, at least you’ll have an idea of their previous credentials on the World/Olympic stage.

But first, how did they all wind up in Paris in the first place?

Olympic Qualification Process

The basic premise behind the 16 qualified athletes at each weight class is as follows:

1. All top-five finishers at each Olympic weight from the 2023 World Championships automatically qualified a spot for their respective countries in Paris.
2. Both finalists from each of four continental qualifying events (African & Oceania, Asian, European, and Pan-American) qualified a spot for their countries as well.
3. The remaining trio of bids went to the countries of the top-three finishers from the ‘Last Chance’ Olympic Qualifying event held in Istanbul, Turkey this past May – where Spencer Lee earned one for the United States.

That makes 16 countries per bracket among each of the six contested weights in each wrestling discipline (Men’s Freestyle, Women’s Freestyle, and Men’s Greco-Roman).

Each country may then select whomever it wishes to represent it at each qualified weight class – typically the wrestler whose result at one of the aforementioned events qualified that spot for the country in the first place.

Once that has all been decided and we know who will be in each bracket it’s time for seeding to begin.

Olympic Seeding Process

The top eight wrestlers at each weight are seeded according to ‘ranking points’ accrued over a series of key tournaments staged within the past year, including the 2023 Senior World Championships.

The other eight ‘unseeded’ wrestlers will be randomly drawn into the bracket the day before the competition begins.

For a variety of reasons, neither Spencer Lee nor Kennedy Blades garnered enough points during the Olympic window to earn a top-eight seed in Paris, meaning they could face anyone from the #1 to the #8 seed in their opening match later this week.

(Unseeded wrestlers cannot face one another in Round 1.)

Do not, however, let their unseeded status lead you to believe that either are less likely to make a run at a medal.

Some of the very best wrestlers in the world (including these two Americans) will enter the 2024 Olympics unseeded, many of whom will be just as capable as anyone in their respective brackets of standing atop the podium when all is said and done.

Now, let’s dive into the competition awaiting the pair of high-powered Hawkeyes.

Men’s Freestyle, 57 kilograms (top eight seeds)

#1 Stevan Mićić (Serbia) *out due to injury (see below)*

• Olympic experience – 14^th (0-1) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2023 World Champion
• Other notable achievements – 2022 World bronze medalist, 5^th at 2019 Worlds

One of a few names that might be familiar to Iowa fans, Mićić spent a whopping eight years(!) in the Big Ten between 2015 and 2022 at Northwestern and Michigan.

A three-time All-American for the Wolverines at 133 pounds – including NCAA runner up in 2018 to one-time Hawkeye Seth Gross (then of South Dakota State) – the reigning World Champion at 57kg is clearly even better suited for the freestyle circuit based on his international results in recent years.

According to DraftKings, Mićić had the second-best odds (+160) to take home gold in Paris, behind only Spencer Lee (-110).

However, in some breaking news as of early Monday morning, Mićić announced that he would be forced to pull out of the Olympics due to a recent knee injury.

This will cause some shuffling with all the seeds below him, although it is as of yet unclear exactly how given that a potential replacement (from Serbia or elsewhere) could slot in somewhere amongst the top-eight seeds if the wrestler had accrued enough ranking points in the lead up to Paris.

You should obviously take the remaining betting odds at 57kg with a grain of salt as well, as it may take a little while for the market to adjust to the Mićić news – not to mention the new dynamic that a replacement competitor could introduce to the bracket.

#2 Rei Higuchi (Japan)

• Olympic experience – silver medalist in 2016
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2022 World Champion (61kg)
• Other notable achievements – 2023 World silver medalist (lost to Mićić), U23 World champion at 65kg (2018)

With three previous appearances in World/Olympic finals to his name, Higuchi (+500) is unquestionably one of the biggest gold medal threats at 57 kilograms.

#3 Arsen Harutyunyan (Armenia)

• Olympic experience – 13^th (0-1) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 3x World bronze medalist (2021-22 at 61kg, 2023 at 57kg)
• Other notable achievements – 2x U23 World Champion at 61kg (2021-22), 2x U20 World bronze medalist (55kg in 2017, 57kg in 2018)

Harutyunyan has been incredibly consistent of late, making the podium at the World Championships in three-consecutive years. However, he has yet to reach a senior-level final and sits at +1200 to win gold in Paris.

#4 Meirambek Kartbay (Kazakhstan)

• Olympic Experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (3-2) at 2023 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – 15^th (0-1) at 2021 Worlds

Kartbay was one of two late additions to the 57kg field after one Russian and one Belarussian athlete were barred from attending the Olympics due to their ties in support of the war in Ukraine.

He’d obviously accumulated enough ranking points to be awarded the #4 seed, but his gold medal odds (+6000) suggest that seed may be a bit misleading.

#5 Zelimkhan Abakarov (Albania)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2022 World Champion
• Other notable achievements – 2023 World bronze medalist

Alongside Lee, Mićić and Higuchi, Abakarov (+800) is one of four athletes in this bracket viewed by most as a cut (or more) above the rest of the field.

The Albanian won his World title less than two years ago, defeating Iowa alum Thomas Gilman in the gold medal match (7-2).

#6 Aman Aman/Sherewat (India)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 11^th (1-1) at 2023 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – U23 World champion (2022), 3x U17 World medalist (bronze in 2018-19, gold in 2021)

The youngest competitor in the field at just 21 years old, Aman (+8000) qualified for these Olympics via the same route as Spencer Lee – by winning his half of the bracket at the ‘Last Chance’ qualifying event in Istanbul.

#7 Wanhao Zou (China)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (3-2) at 2022 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – U23 World bronze medalist (2018)

Another athlete who got into this tournament via his top-three finish at the ‘Last Chance’ qualifier was Zou (+6000).

The Chinese lightweight was also the only person at that event to wrestle an entire match against Spencer Lee – a 10-9 victory for the Hawkeye that saw Zou take an early 6-1 lead only for Lee to erase it with a flurry of points before hanging on for the win after a largely actionless second period got a little too interesting in the final moments.

Because of that, the fact that these two could meet again as early as Round 1 in Paris is certainly noteworthy.

Even so, I think a more mindful Lee is plenty capable of controlling the rematch in a far more comfortable fashion.

#8 Gulomjon Abdullaev (Uzbekistan)

• Olympic experience – 7^th (1-2) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 7^th (2-2) in both 2022 and 2023
• Other notable achievements – U20 World bronze medalist (2016)

Abdullaev (+8000) did nearly upset the eventual Olympic champion back in 2021, but besides that near-miss has yet to truly break through at a senior-level event on the world stage. He’d ultimately get eliminated in Tokyo by Thomas Gilman via 11-1 technical fall.

Men’s Freestyle, 57 kilograms (unseeded wrestlers)

Roman Bravo-Young (Mexico)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – N/A
• Other notable achievements – 2x NCAA champion at 133 pounds (2021-22), runner up in 2023

Bravo-Young is a name that will certainly stand out to most Hawkeye fans as the Penn State alum was a staple on the Big Ten/NCAA scene for the Nittany Lions in recent years – oftentimes clashing with Iowa fan favorite Austin DeSanto.

It might be because of that notoriety in the US that he’s currently given the fifth-best odds (+1000) to win gold in Paris, because he has no real previous Senior or age-level freestyle credentials to suggest that he’s one of the top contenders.

Darian Cruz (Puerto Rico)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 9^th (2-1) at 2022 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – 3x NCAA All-American, 2017 national champ at 125 pounds

Another name that likely rings true in collegiate/folkstyle circles is Lehigh grad Darian Cruz – who upset Iowa’s top-seeded Thomas Gilman in the semifinals (4-2 in sudden victory) en route to his lone NCAA title back in 2017.

Cruz (+20000) also has some freestyle history with Lee – although not the fondest of memories, I’m sure.

At 2019 Senior Nationals – before Cruz made a switch to represent Puerto Rico internationally – Lee rolled to a 10-0 tech. fall less than a minute into the second period.

Aliabbas Rzazade (Azerbaijan)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 13^th (1-1) at 2022 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – 2x World Championships participant (2022-23), U23 World champion (2021), U20 World bronze medalist (2016)

Yet another competitor in the field who has previously crossed paths with Lee (albeit long ago), Rzazade (+10000) spent all of one minute on the mat with the Hawkeye in a loss at the 2016 U20 World Championships – a 10-0 thrashing in the semifinals.

Bekzat Almaz Uulu (Kyrgyzstan)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – N/A
• Other notable achievements – 2x U23 World bronze medalist (2022-23)

Currently at +10000 odds to win in Paris, this will be Uulu’s first-ever appearance on a World/Olympic stage at the senior level.

Vladimir Egorov (North Macedonia)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 8^th (1-2) at 2021 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – a 6x Senior World teamer (2017-19, 2021-23)

Egorov (+20000) dropped a third-place match to Zou (China) at the Last Chance qualifier that had the North Macedonian on the outside looking in prior to the omissions of the Russian/Belarusian athletes.

Well, he’s in the field now – though he also took an absolute whooping at the hands of Lee (12-2) at the Last Chance event back in May.

Gamal Mohamad (Egypt)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 12^th (1-1) at 2023 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – 15^th (0-1) at U20 Worlds in 2018

Mohamad (+30000) will likely be a quick appetizer for someone in Round 1 – it just won’t be Lee since the two are both unseeded.

Diamantino Iuna Fafe (Guinea Bissau)

• Olympic experience – 15^th (0-1) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 21^st (0-1) at 2019 Worlds
• Other notable achievements – N/A

Fafe (+30000) will represent a West African country of barely two million people in his second Olympic Games.

Thus far, he has yet to register a win in eight total appearances at World/Olympic events during his career (including age-level).

Spencer Lee (United States)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – N/A
• Other notable achievements – 3x NCAA champion at 125 pounds, 2x U20 World champion (2015-16), U17 World champion (2014),

After opening as the third or fourth favorite for gold, Lee (-110) has soared to favored status at 57 kilograms – undoubtedly in no small part due to his immense popularity in the country he’ll be representing at these Olympics.

Look, I absolutely believe he’s capable of winning this bracket, but given his lack of a track record on the Senior international stage to date I can’t go as far as to say his odds of doing so are quite as high as the betting markets now portray.

By the numbers (57 kilograms) *all figures pending the announcement of a Mićic replacement*

Four – the number of wrestlers at 57 kilograms with previous Olympic experience

One – the number of previous Olympic medalists (#2 seed Rei Higuchi – silver in 2016)

Two – the number of past Senior World Champions in the bracket (#2 Higuchi, #5 Abakarov)

Five – the number of non-gold Senior World medals won (one silver, four bronze)

Nine – the number of past age-level World titles won (incl. three by Spencer Lee from 2014-16)

3353 – the number of days it has been since Spencer Lee last lost a freestyle match, a pair of defeats via decision to Daton Fix in the finals of U17 World team trials on May 31, 2015

Women’s Freestyle, 76 kilograms (top eight seeds)

#1 Aiperi Medet Kyzy (Kyrgyzstan)

• Olympic experience – 5^th (2-2) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2023 World silver medalist
• Other notable achievements – 2021 World bronze medalist, U23 World champion (2021), U20 World champion (2017), U17 World silver medalist (2016)

Not only did Medet Kyzy earn the #1 overall seed at 76 kilograms, but she’s also the betting favorite entering Paris according to DraftKings at +175 odds. This, despite the fact that she has yet to bring home a gold medal in her career from a Senior World/Olympic competition.

Also of note, the Kyrgyzstani got teched by Blades (12-1) at a tournament back in February of 2023.

#2 Yuka Kagami (Japan)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2023 World Champion
• Other notable achievements – 2022 World bronze medalist, U23 World silver medalist (2019), 2x U20 World champion (2018-19), U17 World champion (2017)

The reigning World champion at 76 kilograms also happens to hail from the dominant power in international women’s wrestling.

So, it should come as no surprise that Japan’s Kagami (+250) trails only Medet Kyzy (+175) and Blades (+200) as tournament favorite.

#3 Tatiana Renteria (Colombia)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2023 World bronze medalist
• Other notable achievements – 10^th (1-1) at 2022 Worlds, U23 World champion (2022), U23 World silver medalist (2021)

The #3 seed Renteria also has the third-best odds of any non-American at 76 kilograms (+800).

#4 Catalina Axente (Romania)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (2-2) in 2023
• Other notable achievements – 13^th (1-1) at 2022 Worlds, 5^th at U23 Worlds (2018)

More chalk in terms of seed/betting odds, Axente (+1000) follows Renteria as a clear tier below the top three at this weight – at least according to some folks out in Vegas.

#5 Milaimys Marin Potrille (Cuba)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (3-2) in 2023
• Other notable achievements – 14^th (1-1) at 2022 Worlds, 27^th (0-1) at 2019 Worlds, U23 World champion (2019), U20 World champion (2019)

Although she has yet to finish on the podium at a Senior World Championship, Marin Potrille strikes me as one of the real dark horses entering these Olympics.

Illustrating her potential upside in Paris, the Cuban (+1400 to win gold) notched a 13-4 win over Blades just a few weeks ago at the Grand Prix of Spain.

#6 Hannah Rueben (Nigeria)

• Olympic experience – 16^th (0-1) in 2016
• Best World/Olympic finish – 12^th (1-1) in 2023
• Other notable achievements – N/A

Rueben (+2000) will be one of only four athletes in the bracket who has previous Olympic experience.

#7 Justina Di Stasio (Canada)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2018 World Champion
• Other notable achievements – 2017 World bronze medalist, 5x senior World teamer (incl. 8^th in 2023, 5^th in 2022)

The Canadian veteran makes her long-awaited Olympic debut after advancing through the Pan-American Qualifier earlier this year.

Di Stasio (+2000) may not have reached her peak in a while, but the 2018 World champion still knows what it’s like to win the toughest tournament on the planet.

#8 Bernadett Nagy (Hungary)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – N/A
• Other notable achievements – 12^th at U23 Worlds in 2021, 5^th at U23 Worlds in 2019, U20 World bronze medalist (2019), U17 World bronze medalist (2017)

Paris will mark the first foray onto the Senior World/Olympic stage for Nagy (+3500).

Women’s Freestyle, 76 kilograms (unseeded wrestlers)

Yuliana Yaneva (Bulgaria)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (2-2) in 2019
• Other notable achievements – 14^th (1-1) at 2023 Worlds, U20 World silver medalist (2017)

If you’re looking to put a few bucks on a long shot, they don’t come any ‘longer’ than Yaneva (+10000) – who did lose a close bronze medal match on the Senior World stage as recently as 2019.

Juan Wang (China)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (2-2) in 2022
• Other notable achievements – 7^th (2-1) at 2023 Worlds

Wang (+5000) made her first two Senior World teams in 2022 and 2023, winning a pair of matches at each tournament despite falling shy of the medals.

She also has the most experience of anyone in the field against Blades, splitting a pair of tight contests with the American within the past 18 months.

Genesis Reasco Valdez (Ecuador)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 5^th (3-2) in 2022
• Other notable achievements – 21^st (0-1) at 2023 Worlds, 5^th at U23 Worlds (2021)

One of five Pan-American representatives at 76 kilograms, Reasco Valdez (+5000) also has previous experience against Blades.

During the same 2023 tournament in which Blades defeated Olympic #1 seed Medet Kyzy (Kyrgyzstan) and Wang (China) it was the Ecuadorian who wrestled her closer than anyone – a 4-4 quarterfinal decision that the American prevailed in via criteria.

Reetika Reetika (India)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 11^th (0-1) in 2023
• Other notable achievements – U23 World champion (2023), U20 World bronze medalist (2022)

Speaking of experience vs. Blades, Reetika (+4000) not only has some recently, but in a championship setting no less.

The first-time Olympian from India soundly defeated Blades (9-2) in the gold medal match of the U23 World Championships last October.

Davaanasan Enkh Amar (Mongolia)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2023 World silver medalist (72kg)
• Other notable achievements – 9^th (0-1) at 2022 Worlds, 5^th (1-2) at 2021 Worlds *both competing at 72kg*

The only woman in the field who has not been a regular at 76 kilograms over the past few years, this Mongolian arrives fresh off appearing in the World finals at 72kg – where she lost in respectable fashion (8-2) to American superstar Amit Elor.

Bump up in weight class aside, Enkh Amar (+4000) must be respected in this bracket for those credentials alone.

Zaineb Sghaier (Tunisia)

• Olympic experience – 16^th (0-2) in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – (see above)
• Other notable achievements – 8th at U23 Worlds (2023), 14^th in 2021

Making her second Olympic appearance before the age of 23, the Tunisian will be hoping this time goes a bit better than the last.

Sghaier (+8000) left Tokyo in 2021 with a record of 0-2 after being promptly pinned by the eventual silver/bronze medalists.

Yasemin Adar Yigit (Turkey)

• Olympic experience – bronze medalist in 2021
• Best World/Olympic finish – 2x World champion (2022, 2017)
• Other notable achievements – 2018 World silver medalist

Unquestionably the most dangerous unseeded wrestler in the field – other than perhaps Blades – Adar Yigit (+1200) is well-versed at winning hardware when it comes to the biggest events in the sport.

She’s also the only competitor in the bracket who already has an Olympic medal hanging in her trophy case (bronze in 2021).

If she were to win it all in Paris it would hardly come as a surprise.

Kennedy Blades (United States)

• Olympic experience – N/A
• Best World/Olympic finish – N/A
• Other notable achievements – U23 World silver medalist (2023), U20 World bronze medalist (2023), U20 World champion (2021)

Just like with Spencer Lee, I think Blades’ current betting odds (+200) are some combination of both her obvious talent and her recognizability as an American.

Can Blades wrestle well enough to win gold? Absolutely. She’s shown that against multiple athletes in this field, including the overall betting favorite Medet Kyzy (+175).

But she’s also had occasional lapses that have cost her against other, somewhat lesser regarded competitors whom she could very well face again in Paris.

By the numbers (76 kilograms)

Four – the number of previous Olympians and the number of Senior World titles won by members of the field

Eight – the number of non-gold Senior World/Olympic medals won by members of the field (three silver, five bronze)

Ten – the number of World/Olympic medals won by American Adeline Gray, a six-time World champion whom Kennedy Blades swept in a best-of-three series back in April to make Team USA

(also) Ten – the number of past age-level World champions (incl. U20 gold won by Blades in 2021)

Short time

If you’ve made it this far, congratulations!

(And thank you)

This is just the beginning of my Olympic wrestling coverage for the week, and as a first timer on this particular beat I don’t really know any other way to go about it than by diving in headfirst.

I’ll have individual previews specific to Spencer Lee (competing August 8-9^th) and Kennedy Blades (August 10-11^th) out a day or two before each begins competition, but I also wanted you guys to have some context on the caliber of opponents who will be standing in their way.

3500-plus words later…here we are.

However, as I mentioned in the intro the degree to which my ‘expertise’ extends – if I even possess such a thing in any meaningful amount – hardly covers what others in this space can enrich you with regarding many of the international wrestlers competing in Paris.

And so, for any of you interested I’d like to direct your attention toward a pair of FloWrestling articles by Jon Kozak (Spencer Lee) and Kyle Klingman (Kennedy Blades) – both of which do an excellent job delving deeper into the styles and strengths/weaknesses of the top competition for the Americans.

USA Wrestling (themat.com) is also a great resource to utilize throughout the next week of action on the mat, and has its own previews up already for Lee and Blades as well.

I can’t even describe to you guys how much I’m looking forward to the wrestling at these Olympics.

Whether you’ll be up at the ass crack of dawn like me for much of the preliminary matches or tuning in at a far more reasonable hour for semifinal/medal action after the sun has come up, it’s my absolute pleasure to join all of you on the journey ahead of us.

As always, my many thanks to everyone for reading (even if you perhaps justifiably skipped a few paragraphs in the process).

Be sure to check back in throughout the week for the rest of our Olympic wrestling coverage on the site, or follow along on social media where I’ll be providing up-to-the-minute information and commentary as well.

It’s Iowa Hawkeye wrestling…AT THE OLYMPICS.

What could be better than that?