Tropical moisture is being pulled north into Florida
Cheryl McCloudUSA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
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As predicted, it was a hot weekend across Florida, with several cities breaking heat records.
Predictions also remained the same Monday morning on what's coming next: rain, and a lot of it.
Some areas could see up to 22 inches of rain, according to AccuWeather.
"South Florida will likely receive the first rounds of showers early Monday, but the pocket of deeper tropical moisture will be focused west of Florida and could travel north, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico," according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
➤ Tropics watch June 10: NHC tracking 4 tropical waves, including 2 in Caribbean
It's all coming from tropical moisture being pulled north from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Here's what to expect and when. But first, a look back over the weekend.
Heat records broken, tied across Florida over weekend
Several record high temperatures were set across Florida over the weekend, including:
- Jacksonville: June 9, 99 degrees; June 7, 98 degrees
- Leesburg: June 9, tied record high of 98 degrees; June 8, 98 degrees
- Vero Beach: June 9, 95 degrees
- Punta Gorda: June 9, 97 degrees
- Ruskin: June 9, tied record high 95 degrees
- Brooksville: June 8, tied record high 97 degrees
- Fort Pierce: June 8, 97 degrees
- Sanford: June 8, 98 degrees
Weather radar: Track storms as they move toward Florida
How much rain is coming to Florida this week?
The National Weather Service Tampa Bay is predicting the following rainfall amounts from June 10 through June 15 as the tropical moisture moves into Florida:
- Fort Myers: 15-20"
- Immokalee: 10-15"
- Punta Gorda: 10-15"
- Sarasota: 8-10"
- Belle Glade: 8-10"
- West Palm Beach: 8-10"
- Vero Beach: 6-8"
- Sebring: 6-8"
- Tampa: 4-6"
- Winter Haven: 4-6"
- Melbourne: 4-6"
- Orlando: 4-6"
- Titusville: 4-6"
- New Port Richey: 4-6"
- Leesburg: 3-4"
- Daytona Beach: 2-3"
- Ocala: 2-3"
- Gainesville: 1-1.5"
- Palatka: 1.5-2"
Rainfall expected to cover much of Florida this week
"For most it has been a long stretch with little to no rain. However, a large plume of tropical moisture will soon be making its way over the peninsula, bringing much needed rain to everyone," according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
As the tropical downpours begin moving into South Florida Tuesday, it will begin a "prolonged stretch" of wet and stormy weather, AccuWeather said.
While the rain will provide welcome relief from both record heat and prolonged drought along Florida's peninsula, it could bring flooding.
"Currently, AccuWeather meteorologists expect tropical downpours to tally up to a whopping 8-12 inches of rain across Southwest Florida, but within this zone where the most intense rain falls, an AccuWeather Local StormMax for rainfall stands at 22 inches," AccuWeather said.
"The zone of 4 inches or more of rainfall is expected to extend even farther to the north and east into theTampaBay Area and on the Atlantic side fromMiamitoOrlando.
Why is so much rain expected in Florida this week?
"Unlike many tropical disturbances that have moved in and out of Florida rather quickly, this rainstorm will have some staying power due to stalled-out winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere," AccuWeather said.
"With the lack of any other storms approaching or strong jet stream winds to move the storm along, the rainstorm will be able to sit and stew across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, pumping up rich tropical moisture into Florida for multiple days."
Southwest Florida could see 20 inches of rain ... or more
A plume of moisture from the Caribbean will move across the state during the week. This will bring us widespread showers with the highest totals in Southwest Florida. Most of this rain will fall on Wednesday through Friday, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
"Forecast rainfall amounts over the next seven days vary a great deal from north to south. Lower amounts of 2-8 inches are forecast to the north of I-4 with amounts as high as 10-15 inches across Southwest Florida."
A graphic released by the National Weather Service Tampa Bay showed predicted rainfall up to 20 inches possible in Fort Myers.
Rain in Lee County: Lee County preparing for heavy rain and potential flooding this week. What to know
Sarasota-Manatee rainfall: Drought relief? Sarasota-Manatee could see 8-10 inches of rain over the next five days
Expected rainfall:
- 8-10 inches in Sarasota
- 15-20 inches in Fort Myers
- 10-15 inches in Punta Gorda
- 10-15 inches in Immokalee
South Florida could see 8-10 inches of rain
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will form once again across South Florida with temperatures reaching the low 90s. Rain and cloud cover will help limit excessive heat risk, thus the main concern will be for localized flooding potential and ponding on roadways, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day becoming more widespread by the middle to the end of the week. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible. This could lead to potential flooding concerns across South Florida Tuesday through Friday.
Rain in Collier County: Collier County preparing for heavy rain and potential flooding this week. What to know
Foot of rain? Heavy rainfall expected in South Florida with up to a foot of rain in some areas through Saturday
Expected rainfall:
- 8-10 inches in West Palm Beach
Central Florida could see near record highs Monday before rain chances ramp up
A transition toward more wet weather is on track for Florida this week. Recent drought conditions will allow the soil to initially soak up this needed moisture. However, if heavy rain/storms recur, localized flooding may result later this week.
"Rounds of lightning storms are expected across most of the area from Monday afternoon through the overnight. Stronger storms this afternoon and evening will be possible, capable of gusty winds of 50 mph, and locally damaging gusts to 60 mph can`t be ruled. Other storm threats will be occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours," according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.
"Rounds of heavy showers and storms will be capable of locally high rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches" Monday.
"Afternoon highs will once again reach near record in the mid to upper 90s, especially inland. This will result in heat index values between 100-107."
"We'll see multiple rounds of showers and lightning storms Tuesday through Friday, with daily rain chances 80 to 90 percent. The big question will be where we see those repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms, and how much rainfall accumulates.
"A fairly common theme across the various guidance is 24-hour rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible, and a total through Friday night of 5-8" down south and 2-4" to the north," according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.
Expected rainfall:
- 2-3 inches in Daytona Beach
- 4-6 inches in Titusville
- 4-6 inches in Melbourne
- 6-8 inches in Vero Beach
- 4-6 inches in Okeechobee
Northeast Florida, near record heat continues, with severe storms possible today
Severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening in Northeast Florida, bringing strong winds, hail and the possibility of tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville.
"Near record high temperatures can be expected again today, as temperatures generally climb to the 95-100 degree range," according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville.
Rain chances increase during the week, especially Tuesday through Friday.
Rainfall could total "1.5" to 2.0" over north central Florida Tuesday through Wednesday" with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the north central FL counties during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Current estimates are 1.0" to 1.25" inches of rainfall over north central Florida. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tallahassee, North Florida has marginal risk of severe weather Monday afternoon
We'll see a return to afternoon showers and storms Monday. While the severe threat is low, some strong/severe storms are possible bringing a strong or damaging wind gust, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
Highs Monday could reach well into the 90s.
Rain chances are lower Tuesday but increase on Wednesday. The tropical moisture "might take longer to arrive into the forecast area so rain chances for Thursday and Friday have gone down and forecast highs have trended upward."
Pensacola, Panhandle could see scattered showers Monday afternoon
Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected with a weak cold front's passage today. Cooler temperatures will begin to move across the area behind the front, topping out in the upper 80s north of Highway 84 and along the coast, to low 90s between, according to the National Weather Service Mobile.
"Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon as a frontal boundary pushes south. Best coverage will be over coastal counties. A few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds are also possible, " according to the National Weather Service Mobile.
Highs for both today and Tuesday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices today, prior to storm development, will rise into the 98-105 degree range areawide.
The arrival time and location of the tropical moisture along the Panhandle, remains a question.
"The latest guidance is trending later/further west than previous runs," according to the National Weather Service Mobile.
