General Dwight D Eisenhower is in the news today as we mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, executed under his orders as supreme allied commander in 1944.
The US Navy nuclear-powered aircraft carrier which bears his name – the mighty “Ike”, launched almost 50 years ago and on active combat ops in the Red Sea today – is not getting much ink … but she should be, and for a few reasons.
First, Ike has just been extended on tour in theatre, again. Her new return date isn’t confirmed but the carrier and her strike group are now staring down the barrel of a nine-month deployment. Some salty sea dogs will say that’s nothing, but it isn’t – and how many of them have done a nine-monther in the heart of a shooting missile war?
Second, Ike is the only hope of the Red Sea re-opening to world trade. So far the big ship and her air wing have flown more than 12,100 sorties and launched more than 400 missiles on top of the 100 launched from the ships of her strike group. These efforts have been the central part of Operation Poseidon Archer, the US-led effort to smash Houthi missile and drone capabilities inland before they can be fired.
The Houthis have not been suppressed, but that’s not down to lack of effort. It’s because the Houthi weapon systems are mobile, concealed and numerous and therefore impossible to neutralise entirely without employing a (much) heavier weight of fire or ‘boots on the ground’, both of which remain politically unacceptable. In turn, this means that Poseidon Archer’s defensive sibling, Operation Prosperity Guardian, can’t guarantee safe passage for shipping.
The third reason this remains relevant is because overall shipping numbers remain down by 50 per cent and for high-value ships such as gas carriers and container ships, over 90 per cent. This no longer captures the headlines as it is being perceived as the new normal, but it shouldn’t be. Prices continue to climb, fleets continue to be stretched and shipping companies, despite being able to profit in the short term, say going around Africa isn’t sustainable in the long term and want to go back through Suez.
For now though, they are right not to be running the gauntlet. Just three days ago the Houthis struck a ship loaded with grain heading for Iran proving that they can still out-manoeuvre Poseidon Archer – but also proving that they have no real idea who they’re aiming at.
The fourth reason to keep an eye on events there is because things just got worse with the Houthis adding an Iranian-supplied “hypersonic” missile to the mix of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles already used. This isn’t the first time they’ve made bold claims – indeed only the other day they claimed they had hit the Eisenhower so we know that much of what they say is false, but now a “Palestine” hypersonic has been tracked in flight between Western Yemen and the Israeli port of Eilat. It missed, but this is still a significant development.
Hypersonic is strictly defined as travelling over Mach 5. The “Palestine” missile as it’s being called may be able to go this fast, but it probably isn’t massively dangerous. A dangerous hypersonic can not only beat Mach 5 but do so in certain flight regimes – for instance beating Mach 5 while also manoeuvring aggressively in the upper atmosphere, making it hard to track and hit. A missile which could go at Mach 5 close to sea level – while also managing somehow to receive information through its self-generated cloak of superhot plasma – would also be a very dangerous thing. It’s highly unlikely that the “Palestine” can do anything like this: but either way, the ships stationed down there on constant high alert for missiles have yet one more threat to deal with.
And it is always possible that the Iranians have supplied their Houthi pawns with something tricky. Given the US Army Patriot missile’s success against the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile, there is an assumption that the US Navy’s top-end SM-6 interceptor could defeat lower-end hypersonics but that’s all it is, an assumption. And we know for sure that none of the other international warships there could beat a true hypersonic. Having just three ships who ‘might be able’ to defeat this new threat is not going to reassure the shipping companies.
To make matters worse, analysis of the launch also showed plumes of white exhaust smoke which missile experts say indicates a solid-fuel missile. These are more reliable and much faster to get ready to shoot than their liquid-fuelled equivalents, making Poseidon Archer’s job of detecting and smacking them before launch even harder than it was already.
Between running an outstanding personal X-was-Twitter account, handing out cookies and reassuring everyone that they have not been sunk, Captain Chowdah Hill – captain of the Ike – will be putting a lot of effort into scouring the mountains and plains of Western Yemen for evidence of these launchers.
Maybe – probably – the Palestine missile isn’t a true, dangerous hypersonic. Maybe its control and guidance aren’t very good and maybe the Houthis won’t be good at aiming it. But, as has been the case since last October when they started firing missiles up the Red Sea, they can keep rolling the dice until they get lucky. The thousands of sailors aboard the Ike, her group, and the international warships of many nations deployed to those waters are living with that deadly reality every minute of every day. The Royal Navy is there: HMS Duncan has just headed out to relieve HMS Diamond on station. So too, in an echo of World War II, are many merchant seamen as they carry their cargoes through dangerous waters.
We should keep an eye on the Red Sea because success in warfare is rarely guaranteed. Captain Chowdah said so in his message to his crew today. General Eisenhower also knew this, writing two memos 80 years ago, one for if the D-Day invasion was successful and one for if it was not.
For the latter he wrote, “Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based upon the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy, did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt, it is mine alone.”
The handwritten note is interesting as initially he writes “the troops have been withdrawn” before crossing it out and replacing it with “I have withdrawn the troops”. This is what leadership looks like and a large part of the reason this memo wasn’t needed.
As we remember not just his leadership but also the exemplary bravery and commitment of those he led 80 years ago, we should spare a thought for the leadership his namesake is providing in the Red Sea. The scale is different: the requirements to provide calm assurance, clear and accurate guidance and inspire sustained bravery in a place of grinding, everyday danger are not.
